response to WillSea's post Psychohistory redux
Rational Choice is an expert Monte Carlo system
Commented on January 21, 2008 by - dualkey
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Technology
response to WillSea's post Psychohistory redux
Commented on January 21, 2008 by - dualkey
Given N experts to predict an outcome in any scenario, the accuracy improves exponentially with the number of experts. Political polls fail because the people have irrational opinions, not rational predictions.
A poll asking even reasonable people who will win the election is a better predictor than asking them who they will vote for.
I love this guy,
dualkey