Rigour? (UK spelling, sorry!)

response to  Michael A.M. Lerner and Ethan Hill's post The New Nostradamus

What the article doesn't tell you is any real data about how successful his predictions are, relative to chance. France passed the Mastricht treaty - OK, so he had a 1 in 2 chance of being correct whatever he predicted. Daniel Ortega would be voted out - well it was almost certain to happen sometime...
I don't think this approach couldn't be right, but without some really statistically significant track record, it's just a nice story.

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